SNAP POLL: Hipkins clear voter favourite for Labour Party leadership race

Following Thursday’s surprise announcement by Jacinda Ardern that she will be stepping down as Labour Party leader, the Taxpayers’ Union commissioned a snap poll asking a thousand New Zealanders who should take over as Prime Minister and whether leading candidates will make voters more or less likely to vote Labour in this year’s election.
 
Curia Market Research undertook the poll on 19 and 20 January (median response was on the 20th) sampling 1,000 New Zealanders via an online poll, weighted to reflect overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.

 
 
Unlike the monthly Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll, the full report – including demographic breakdowns – is being made publicly. It is available to download at www.taxpayers.org.nz/snap_poll 
 
Name recognition
 
Prompted name recognition of the leading candidates, in order, are:

1. Chris Hipkins 92%
2. Grant Robertson 88%
3. Nanaia Mahuta 77%
4. Megan Woods 72%
5. Michael Wood 71%
6. Kiri Allan 67%

Favourability
 
Net favourability of the leading candidates, in order, are:

1. Chris Hipkins +15%
2. Grant Robertson +12%
3. Kiri Allan +7%
4. Michael Wood -7%
5. Megan Woods -10%
6. Nanaia Mahuta -26%

The full polling report includes breakdowns by gender, age, geographic area, and party vote at the last election.  For example, as is detailed in the report, Chris Hipkins is a more popular choice with older voters (60+) and Nanaia Mahuta with younger voters (18–39).
 
Net impact (more or less likely to vote Labour)
 
Poll participants were questioned about whether the leading candidates would make them more or less likely to vote for Labour this year. Net results: 

• Chris Hipkins +7%
• Grant Robertson -5%
• Kiri Allan -6%
• Michael Wood -16%
• Megan Woods -19%
• Nanaia Mahuta -28%

Who should lead Labour?
 
Overall, when asked who they want to replace Jacinda Ardern, 30% said Chris Hipkins followed by Kiri Allan on 10%.
 
Jacinda Ardern’s policies (new leader retain or scrap)
 
The poll also asked whether the new leader should retain or scrap signature policies such as Three Waters, KiwiBuild, and merging TVNZ and RNZ.  The net retain (retain minus scrap) score for each policy is:

• Auckland Light Rail +18%
• Kiwibuild +15%
• Compulsory Unemployment Insurance -4%
• Reduction in speed limits -21%
• Expanding co-governance -21%
• TVNZ/RNZ Merger -23%
• Three Waters -40%

Responding to the results, Jordan Williams, Executive Director of the Taxpayers’ Union, said:

“With Grant Robertson ruling himself out, it is obvious that if Labour are serious about winning later this year, the only option is Chris Hipkins. Based on this snap poll, every other leadership contender would lose votes for Labour."
 
“But electing Chris Hipkins won’t be enough. This poll sends a clear message that some of Jacinda Ardern’s policies will need to be scrapped if the new leader is to attract back those who voted for Labour at the last election, but have since shifted."
 
“The message to the next Prime Minister on Three Waters is particularly overwhelming. Even those who voted Labour at the last election told our pollsters – by a majority of more than two-to-one – that they want the next Prime Minister to scrap the controversial water reforms. Those are the very people the new PM will need bring back into the fold if the Government is to stay electorally viable."
 
“This poll shows just how deeply unpopular Three Waters, and the RNZ/TVNZ merger have become, even among Labour’s potential supporters.”

ENDS

Source: Taxpayers' Union