Property values fall at fastest pace since the GFC

Property values fall at fastest pace since the GFC

0 개 370 KoreaPost

CoreLogic's House Price Index (HPI), which is the most robust measure of property value change in the market, shows that the current market downturn became further entrenched in July.

The national measure of property values fell a further -0.9% in July, taking the three month drop in values to -2.5%, the largest quarterly fall since October 2008 (-3.4%), when the market was in retreat from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).

 

CoreLogic NZ Head of Research, Nick Goodall, said demand remains constrained despite the easing of the CCCFA regulations in early July.

"Housing affordability remains significantly stretched despite values falling, with the combination of high prices, following a significant upswing in values, and increasing interest rates restricting the number of buyers who are able, let alone willing, to borrow the sums of money required to buy property," he said.

"Loan-to-value (LVR) restrictions also sit at their tightest setting on record, with banks remaining below the allocated 10% speed limit. The increase in listings on the market over the past year or so has also switched pricing power towards buyers."

CoreLogic House Price Index - National and Main Centres

 

Change in property values

Average Value

 

Month

Quarter

Annual

New Zealand

-0.9%

-2.5%

9.5%

$1,009,662

Auckland

-0.7%

-4.0%

9.5%

$1,434,889

Hamilton

-0.6%

-1.8%

8.7%

$875,361

Tauranga

-0.9%

-2.4%

16.0%

$1,153,569

Wellington

-3.6%

-6.7%

-0.3%

$1,036,727

Christchurch

-1.6%

1.3%

19.6%

$771,108

Dunedin

-1.3%

-3.0%

1.3%

$673,440

Property values fell in July in each of the six main centres, with previously resilient Christchurch now joining the chorus of cities in the negatives (-1.6%).

Mr Goodall said "As we've been noting for some time now, supportive factors such as better affordability in Christchurch may mean that values and demand hold up better than the other main centres through this correction phase. But that doesn't mean Christchurch will be immune from the downturn."

The standout however, is the annual rate of change for the Wellington region, which dropped into the negatives for the first time in a decade (January 2012 -0.1%).

"This illustrates a remarkable turnaround after the annual growth rate peaked less than a year ago in October 2021 at 36.1%, but has since slowed and now fallen back to take the average value below the same time last year ($1.04m)," Mr Goodall said.

CoreLogic House Price Index – Wellington region

 

Change in property values

Average Value

 

Month

Quarter

Annual

Kāpiti Coast

-1.6%

-2.8%

3.8%

$945,695

Porirua

-4.6%

-8.4%

-1.6%

$918,165

Upper Hutt

-1.5%

-5.8%

-2.0%

$854,666

Lower Hutt

-1.7%

-4.9%

-1.5%

$908,531

Wellington City

-4.5%

-7.2%

0.7%

$1,172,100

Weakness is evident across the Wellington region with Porirua (-4.6%) and Wellington City (-4.5%) showing the largest value falls over July, but all five main urban areas are seeing at least a -1.5% fall. Values in Upper Hutt are now -2.0% below the same time last year – the worst rate of annual change across the motu.

Aside from affordability pressures impacting values in the Capital (as with the rest of the country), a previously heightened presence of first home buyers, but now subsequent decline, may also be a factor in the sharper turn-around with this sector of the market most impacted by the latest tightening of LVR restrictions.

"A significant increase in development activity over the past two years, particularly in Lower Hutt and Upper Hutt, could also be a factor in recent weakness. Some buyers who stretched their budgets based on development potential may now find that potential may not be realised soon enough to make the sums work," Mr Goodall said.

Values in Dunedin remain slightly above (1.3%) the same month last year, but fell a further -1.3% in July to take the cumulative fall since the start of the year to -5.8%.

CoreLogic House Price Index – Auckland region

 

Change in property values

Average Value

 

Month

Quarter

Annual

Rodney

0.2%

-0.6%

16.6%

$1,411,575

North Shore

-1.0%

-4.7%

7.2%

$1,587,715

Waitakere

-1.3%

-4.9%

7.5%

$1,143,634

Auckland City

-0.3%

-4.0%

7.4%

$1,651,363

Manukau

-1.5%

-4.7%

11.7%

$1,285,727

Papakura

-1.3%

-3.8%

18.1%

$1,064,301

Franklin

-0.6%

-1.1%

17.3%

$1,024,428

In Aotearoa's largest city, Auckland, values remain at least 7% above the same time last year, but quarterly falls of -4.0% or more in the most populous areas show the tide has turned here, too.

"With affordability unlikely to improve significantly while interest rates continue to increase, the outlook for values across the country is to follow a similar path to the first half of this year for the rest of 2022," Mr Goodall said.

"The relatively controlled nature of this downturn is unlikely to ring alarm bells for those at the RBNZ especially after such a strong upswing in values prior to the end of 2021. Trying to get control of inflation, through OCR increases is likely to remain their number one priority for now.

"That probably means discussion of LVRs loosening is premature, with the RBNZ most interested in financial stability, increasing the share of lower equity loans would not be the prudent option, especially with values continuing to fall in many parts across the country, increasing the likelihood of borrowers falling into negative equity."

However, Mr Goodall notes that this isn't necessarily a huge problem provided that borrowers are employed and can still service the debt.

"Indeed, it's probably worth noting that even if the LVR restrictions were loosened, they are unlikely to bring a significant lift in demand. The impact of loosening the LVRs while the market is increasing is very different to loosening them as the market is decreasing – even if borrowers could secure the funding, would they want to? With dented confidence and expectations of value falls to come, many would suggest not."

Mr Goodall flagged a more likely scenario may be the introduction of debt-to-income (DTIs) limits at some stage in 2023, alongside a loosening of the LVRs. The RBNZ's version of giving with one hand and taking with the other. This could better protect the market from both sides of the lending equation. LVRs shoring up the lender with greater capital against their loans, while DTIs would limit borrowers' exposure to future market downturns. 

Outside the main cities, all main urban areas have seen values fall over the last three months. In particular Napier values are down -6.1% since April to leave the average value only 3.0% above the same time last year.

In Palmerston North, persistent falls have left the average value only 0.9% ahead of the same time last year, to sit at $720k.

Weakness has crept into the Queenstown market, though the annual growth rate of 20.5% tells the story of a resilient and unique market, no doubt buoyed by the full opening of the New Zealand border at the start of this August.

ENDS


Source: CoreLogic NZ

2,100 community cases; 436 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 230 | 2022.08.21
Today we are reporting 2,100 community cases and 436 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 3,733 –… 더보기

3,302 community cases; 467 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 217 | 2022.08.20
Today we are reporting 3,302 community cases, 467 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 3,828 – la… 더보기

3,805 community cases; 466 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 273 | 2022.08.19
Today we are reporting 3,805 community cases, 466 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 3,876 – la… 더보기

4,540 community cases; 473 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 357 | 2022.08.18
Today we are reporting 4,540 community cases and 473 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 3,928– … 더보기

4,489 community cases; 496 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 217 | 2022.08.17
Today we are reporting 4,489 community cases and 496 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 3,975 –… 더보기

7,297 flu vaccines administered in the last w…

댓글 0 | 조회 211 | 2022.08.17
Influenza vaccines administered in New ZealandThe numbers as at 13 August 20227,297 flu vaccines administered across New Zealand in the past week, bri… 더보기

Latest OCR rise may not hit mortgage rates

댓글 0 | 조회 511 | 2022.08.17
As expected the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) delivered another 0.5% increase in the official cash rate (OCR)today, taking it to 3% – the highest level since Se… 더보기

Search and rescue: important upgrades of NZ s…

댓글 0 | 조회 210 | 2022.08.16
Better response for distress beacons in 30m square km of SW PacificImportant upgrades at New Zealand’s search and rescue satellite Earth station begin… 더보기

4,811 community cases; 533 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 233 | 2022.08.16
Today we are reporting 4,811 community cases and 533 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 4,073 –… 더보기

Turning point for profitable resales as gains…

댓글 0 | 조회 252 | 2022.08.16
The resale performance of residential real estate has reached a turning point, CoreLogic NZ’s latest Pain & Gain report shows, with Q2 figures rev… 더보기

Who are the best Broadband, Power and Mobile …

댓글 0 | 조회 283 | 2022.08.16
Recognising excellence, leadership and innovation in the New Zealand utility sectors, the NZ Compare Awards are back for the 6th year and in response … 더보기

Auckland’s local elections candidates confirm…

댓글 0 | 조회 238 | 2022.08.15
462 Aucklanders have successfully lodged their nominations to stand in the local elections. Yes, the race has officially begun as nominations for Auck… 더보기

3,387 community cases; 536 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 209 | 2022.08.15
Today we are reporting 3,387 community cases and 536 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 4,230 –… 더보기

2,618 community cases; 557 hospitalisations, …

댓글 0 | 조회 261 | 2022.08.14
Today we are reporting 2,618 community cases, 557 current hospitalisations and 15 patients in ICU.The seven-day rolling average of community case numb… 더보기

3,650 community cases; 546 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 254 | 2022.08.13
Today we are reporting3,650community cases and546current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is4,418– last … 더보기

Food prices increase 7.4 percent annually

댓글 0 | 조회 225 | 2022.08.12
Food prices were 7.4 percent higher in July 2022 compared with July 2021, Stats NZ said today.In July 2022, the annual increase was due to rises acros… 더보기

4,126 community cases; 549 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 198 | 2022.08.12
Today we are reporting 4,126 community cases and 549 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 4,581. … 더보기

Fourth Monkeypox case

댓글 0 | 조회 287 | 2022.08.12
Manatū Hauora – Ministry of Health and Te Whatu Ora – Health New Zealand are today reporting a fourth case of Monkeypox in New Zealand.The person, who… 더보기

4,818 community cases; 571 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 226 | 2022.08.11
Today we are reporting 4,818 community cases and 571 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 4,750. … 더보기

5,169 community cases; 599 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 175 | 2022.08.11
Today we are reporting 5,169 community cases and 599 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 4,938. … 더보기

5,939 community cases; 634 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 184 | 2022.08.09
Today we are reporting 5,939 community cases and 634 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 5,120. … 더보기

4,006 community cases; 654 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 213 | 2022.08.08
Today we are reporting 4,006 community cases and 654 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 5,288. … 더보기

3,302 community cases; 606 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 396 | 2022.08.07
Todaywe are reporting 3,302 community cases and606current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 5,441 – la… 더보기

4,790 community cases; 648 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 330 | 2022.08.06
Todaywe are reporting4,790community cases and648current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 5,608 – last… 더보기

5296 community cases; 605 hospitalisations; 1…

댓글 0 | 조회 239 | 2022.08.05
Today we are reporting 5,296 community cases and 605 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 5,812 –… 더보기

6,152 community cases; 663 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 241 | 2022.08.04
Today we are reporting 6,152 community cases and 663 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 6,142 –… 더보기

Consents for homes still high, but down for s…

댓글 0 | 조회 426 | 2022.08.03
In the year ended June 2022, there were 50,736 new homes consented, up 14 percent from the year ended June 2021, Stats NZ said today.“The year ended J… 더보기

Annual wage inflation rises to 3.4 percent

댓글 0 | 조회 462 | 2022.08.03
Wage inflation, measured by the labour cost index (LCI), was 3.4 percent in the year ended June 2022, while average ordinary time hourly earnings rose… 더보기

6440 community cases; 704 hospitalisations; 1…

댓글 0 | 조회 323 | 2022.08.03
Today we are reporting 6,440 community cases and 704 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 6,355 –… 더보기

현재 Property values fall at fastest pace since th…

댓글 0 | 조회 371 | 2022.08.03
CoreLogic's House Price Index (HPI), which is the most robust measure of property value change in the market, shows that the current market downturn b… 더보기

7,113 community cases; 738 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 202 | 2022.08.02
Today we are reporting 7,113 community cases and 738 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 6,683 –… 더보기

5,312 community cases; 759 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 203 | 2022.08.01
Today we are reporting 5,312 community cases, 759 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 6,990.Ther… 더보기

4,238 community cases; 806 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 196 | 2022.07.31
Today we are reporting 4,238 community cases, 806 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 7,183.As a… 더보기

6,232 community cases; 769 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 389 | 2022.07.30
Today we are reporting 6,232 community cases, 769 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 7,405As at… 더보기

Appointment of Markerita Poutasi as National …

댓글 0 | 조회 192 | 2022.07.29
Te Whatu Ora – Health New Zealand has today announced the appointment of Markerita (Meg) Poutasi as National Director, Pacific Health.Announcing this … 더보기

Auckland welcomes first Māori/Pasifika operat…

댓글 0 | 조회 210 | 2022.07.29
Residents who live in Onehunga and its neighbouring suburbs can now do their part to help reduce the amount of waste going to landfill with the openin… 더보기

7,605 community cases; 799 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 379 | 2022.07.29
Today we are reporting 7,605 community cases, 799 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 7,618.Ther… 더보기

7,627 community cases; 827 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 356 | 2022.07.28
Today we are reporting 7,627 community cases, and 827 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 7,776T… 더보기

21,182 flu vaccines administered in the last …

댓글 0 | 조회 156 | 2022.07.28
Influenza vaccines administered in New ZealandThe numbers as at 22 July 202221,182 flu vaccines administered across New Zealand in the past week, brin… 더보기

One million people aged 65+ by 2028

댓글 0 | 조회 208 | 2022.07.28
The number of people aged 65 years or older (65+) living in New Zealand is likely to hit 1 million by 2028, Stats NZ said today.Population projections… 더보기

Te Whatu Ora media release - Get a hepatitis …

댓글 0 | 조회 157 | 2022.07.28
Get a hepatitis C test on World Hepatitis Day to put your worries behind youNew Zealanders at risk of hepatitis C should make sure to get a quick and … 더보기

8,730 community cases; 808 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 438 | 2022.07.27
Today we are reporting 8,730 community cases, and 808 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 8,111.… 더보기

Multiple challenges to test NZ's declining ma…

댓글 0 | 조회 305 | 2022.07.27
The combination of sharply rising interest rates and the large wave of refinancing of existing mortgages that will occur over the next year is set to … 더보기

9,256 community cases; 822 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 438 | 2022.07.26
Today we are reporting 9,256 community cases, and 822 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 8,335.… 더보기

6,910 community cases; 836 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 387 | 2022.07.25
Today we are reporting 6,910 community cases, 836 current hospitalisations, and 16 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers toda… 더보기

5,535 community cases; 720 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 415 | 2022.07.24
Today we are reporting 5,535 community cases, 720 current hospitalisations, and 14 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers toda… 더보기

7,746 community cases; 759 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 377 | 2022.07.23
Today we are reporting 7,746 community cases, 759 current hospitalisations, and 22 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers toda… 더보기

8,728 community cases; 759 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 357 | 2022.07.22
Today we are reporting 8,728 community cases, 759 current hospitalisations, and 26 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers toda… 더보기

Greenhouse gases increasing but still below p…

댓글 0 | 조회 201 | 2022.07.22
Seasonally adjusted greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increased 1.1 percent (205 kilotonnes) in the December 2021 quarter from the September 2021 quarter… 더보기

9,953 community cases; 767 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 393 | 2022.07.21
Today we are reporting 9,953 community cases, 767 current hospitalisations, and 32 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers toda… 더보기