Property values fall at fastest pace since the GFC

Property values fall at fastest pace since the GFC

0 개 718 KoreaPost

CoreLogic's House Price Index (HPI), which is the most robust measure of property value change in the market, shows that the current market downturn became further entrenched in July.

The national measure of property values fell a further -0.9% in July, taking the three month drop in values to -2.5%, the largest quarterly fall since October 2008 (-3.4%), when the market was in retreat from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).

 

CoreLogic NZ Head of Research, Nick Goodall, said demand remains constrained despite the easing of the CCCFA regulations in early July.

"Housing affordability remains significantly stretched despite values falling, with the combination of high prices, following a significant upswing in values, and increasing interest rates restricting the number of buyers who are able, let alone willing, to borrow the sums of money required to buy property," he said.

"Loan-to-value (LVR) restrictions also sit at their tightest setting on record, with banks remaining below the allocated 10% speed limit. The increase in listings on the market over the past year or so has also switched pricing power towards buyers."

CoreLogic House Price Index - National and Main Centres

 

Change in property values

Average Value

 

Month

Quarter

Annual

New Zealand

-0.9%

-2.5%

9.5%

$1,009,662

Auckland

-0.7%

-4.0%

9.5%

$1,434,889

Hamilton

-0.6%

-1.8%

8.7%

$875,361

Tauranga

-0.9%

-2.4%

16.0%

$1,153,569

Wellington

-3.6%

-6.7%

-0.3%

$1,036,727

Christchurch

-1.6%

1.3%

19.6%

$771,108

Dunedin

-1.3%

-3.0%

1.3%

$673,440

Property values fell in July in each of the six main centres, with previously resilient Christchurch now joining the chorus of cities in the negatives (-1.6%).

Mr Goodall said "As we've been noting for some time now, supportive factors such as better affordability in Christchurch may mean that values and demand hold up better than the other main centres through this correction phase. But that doesn't mean Christchurch will be immune from the downturn."

The standout however, is the annual rate of change for the Wellington region, which dropped into the negatives for the first time in a decade (January 2012 -0.1%).

"This illustrates a remarkable turnaround after the annual growth rate peaked less than a year ago in October 2021 at 36.1%, but has since slowed and now fallen back to take the average value below the same time last year ($1.04m)," Mr Goodall said.

CoreLogic House Price Index – Wellington region

 

Change in property values

Average Value

 

Month

Quarter

Annual

Kāpiti Coast

-1.6%

-2.8%

3.8%

$945,695

Porirua

-4.6%

-8.4%

-1.6%

$918,165

Upper Hutt

-1.5%

-5.8%

-2.0%

$854,666

Lower Hutt

-1.7%

-4.9%

-1.5%

$908,531

Wellington City

-4.5%

-7.2%

0.7%

$1,172,100

Weakness is evident across the Wellington region with Porirua (-4.6%) and Wellington City (-4.5%) showing the largest value falls over July, but all five main urban areas are seeing at least a -1.5% fall. Values in Upper Hutt are now -2.0% below the same time last year – the worst rate of annual change across the motu.

Aside from affordability pressures impacting values in the Capital (as with the rest of the country), a previously heightened presence of first home buyers, but now subsequent decline, may also be a factor in the sharper turn-around with this sector of the market most impacted by the latest tightening of LVR restrictions.

"A significant increase in development activity over the past two years, particularly in Lower Hutt and Upper Hutt, could also be a factor in recent weakness. Some buyers who stretched their budgets based on development potential may now find that potential may not be realised soon enough to make the sums work," Mr Goodall said.

Values in Dunedin remain slightly above (1.3%) the same month last year, but fell a further -1.3% in July to take the cumulative fall since the start of the year to -5.8%.

CoreLogic House Price Index – Auckland region

 

Change in property values

Average Value

 

Month

Quarter

Annual

Rodney

0.2%

-0.6%

16.6%

$1,411,575

North Shore

-1.0%

-4.7%

7.2%

$1,587,715

Waitakere

-1.3%

-4.9%

7.5%

$1,143,634

Auckland City

-0.3%

-4.0%

7.4%

$1,651,363

Manukau

-1.5%

-4.7%

11.7%

$1,285,727

Papakura

-1.3%

-3.8%

18.1%

$1,064,301

Franklin

-0.6%

-1.1%

17.3%

$1,024,428

In Aotearoa's largest city, Auckland, values remain at least 7% above the same time last year, but quarterly falls of -4.0% or more in the most populous areas show the tide has turned here, too.

"With affordability unlikely to improve significantly while interest rates continue to increase, the outlook for values across the country is to follow a similar path to the first half of this year for the rest of 2022," Mr Goodall said.

"The relatively controlled nature of this downturn is unlikely to ring alarm bells for those at the RBNZ especially after such a strong upswing in values prior to the end of 2021. Trying to get control of inflation, through OCR increases is likely to remain their number one priority for now.

"That probably means discussion of LVRs loosening is premature, with the RBNZ most interested in financial stability, increasing the share of lower equity loans would not be the prudent option, especially with values continuing to fall in many parts across the country, increasing the likelihood of borrowers falling into negative equity."

However, Mr Goodall notes that this isn't necessarily a huge problem provided that borrowers are employed and can still service the debt.

"Indeed, it's probably worth noting that even if the LVR restrictions were loosened, they are unlikely to bring a significant lift in demand. The impact of loosening the LVRs while the market is increasing is very different to loosening them as the market is decreasing – even if borrowers could secure the funding, would they want to? With dented confidence and expectations of value falls to come, many would suggest not."

Mr Goodall flagged a more likely scenario may be the introduction of debt-to-income (DTIs) limits at some stage in 2023, alongside a loosening of the LVRs. The RBNZ's version of giving with one hand and taking with the other. This could better protect the market from both sides of the lending equation. LVRs shoring up the lender with greater capital against their loans, while DTIs would limit borrowers' exposure to future market downturns. 

Outside the main cities, all main urban areas have seen values fall over the last three months. In particular Napier values are down -6.1% since April to leave the average value only 3.0% above the same time last year.

In Palmerston North, persistent falls have left the average value only 0.9% ahead of the same time last year, to sit at $720k.

Weakness has crept into the Queenstown market, though the annual growth rate of 20.5% tells the story of a resilient and unique market, no doubt buoyed by the full opening of the New Zealand border at the start of this August.

ENDS


Source: CoreLogic NZ

Property prices rise in more than one in 10 N…

댓글 0 | 조회 768 | 2023.06.14
Despite soft market conditions persisting across most of Aotearoa New Zealand, dozens of suburbs have defied the downturn, increasing in value in the … 더보기

Downward property market momentum remains, bu…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,012 | 2023.06.01
Property values across Aotearoa NZ continued to fall in May, down 0.7%, but the annual rate of change has eased, providing tentative evidence the curr… 더보기

The first step on the property ladder is shri…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,587 | 2023.05.25
Quotable Value's latest figures show home values have fallen further on average at the bottom of the property ladder than at the top.The QV Quartile I… 더보기

RBNZ stays the course, OCR up to 5.5%

댓글 0 | 조회 1,222 | 2023.05.24
Commentary by CoreLogic NZ Chief Property Economist Kelvin DavidsonToday's 0.25% increase to the official cash rate (OCR) was fully in line with expec… 더보기

Property resale losses at seven-year high

댓글 0 | 조회 729 | 2023.05.24
·6.1% of property resales in Q1 2023 made a gross loss, up from 4.0% in Q4 2022·More than one quarter of apartment resales made a gross loss, the high… 더보기

Housing headwinds hit mortgaged investors as …

댓글 0 | 조회 850 | 2023.05.18
Low yields, high mortgage rates, high deposits and interest deductibility changes are deterring mortgaged multiple property owners (MPOs), with the bu… 더보기

Annual food prices increase 12.5 percent

댓글 0 | 조회 726 | 2023.05.12
Food prices were 12.5 percent higher in April 2023 than they were in April 2022, according to figures released by Stats NZ today.“The 12.5 percent ann… 더보기

Mayor ends Auckland state of emergency

댓글 0 | 조회 729 | 2023.05.11
Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown has ended the state of emergency declared over Auckland on May 9. There are no weather watches or warnings in place for Auc… 더보기

House prices still falling, but at a slower r…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,260 | 2023.05.04
The downturn in New Zealand’s property market continued in April, with average values down by another 0.6%, CoreLogic’s monthly House Price Index (HPI… 더보기

CoreLogic NZ launches powerful new property m…

댓글 0 | 조회 641 | 2023.04.26
CoreLogic NZ has unveiled a new property market insights product that provides extensive insights into the country's residential housing landscape usi… 더보기

World Immunisation Week (24 – 30 April)

댓글 0 | 조회 691 | 2023.04.25
-Ongoing Collective action needed to protect people against vaccine preventable disease-World Immunisation Week (24 – 30 April) is an opportunity to a… 더보기

Is this the beginning of the end for the NZ h…

댓글 0 | 조회 977 | 2023.04.20
The stabilisation of mortgage rates is one of several market indicators signalling a possible end to the country’s extended property downturn, despite… 더보기

Cost to build shows signs of slowing as const…

댓글 0 | 조회 741 | 2023.04.13
It’s getting more expensive to build a house in New Zealand, but the pace of growth has started to ease for the first time in more than two years.The … 더보기

Downturn deepens as Official Cash Rate rises …

댓글 0 | 조회 634 | 2023.04.12
The residential property downturn appears to be gaining momentum once more, with home values making their largest first-quarter fall in more than 15 y… 더보기

Reserve Bank still taking a tough inflationar…

댓글 0 | 조회 862 | 2023.04.05
Commentary by CoreLogic NZ Chief Property Economist, Kelvin DavidsonToday’s 0.5% increase to the official cash rate (OCR) was larger than many comment… 더보기

Four million milestone reached for 2023 Censu…

댓글 0 | 조회 614 | 2023.03.31
Over four million people have returned their Individual Forms for the 2023 Census, Stats NZ said today."This is a great milestone. We didn't hit this … 더보기

Five things to know about the ‘refinancing wa…

댓글 0 | 조회 983 | 2023.03.27
By CoreLogic NZ Chief Property Economist Kelvin DavidsonThe steady flow of existing mortgage borrowers across NZ who have had to stomach higher intere… 더보기

Students tackling climate change

댓글 0 | 조회 784 | 2023.03.25
A group of Auckland schools are coming up with strategies to help tackle climate change, reduce carbon emissions, and create a more sustainable future… 더보기

NZ has the second cheapest internet in Oceani…

댓글 0 | 조회 868 | 2023.03.16
New research on global broadband pricing byCable.co.ukhas found New Caledonia (USD 32.49, 72nd place globally) to have the cheapest broadband in the O… 더보기

The NZ homeowners hit hardest by the property…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,482 | 2023.03.13
Homeowners in some of New Zealand’s wealthiest suburbs are feeling the pain from the property market downturn, with estimated median values falling by… 더보기

Asian parents more concerned about kid’s devi…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,201 | 2023.03.09
With news about TikTok's time limit and the negative impacts of screen use playing on many people's minds, I'm getting in touch with some confronting … 더보기

Joint home ownership on the rise as affordabi…

댓글 0 | 조회 874 | 2023.03.07
Women in New Zealand and Australia continue to trail men in the home ownership stakes amid crippling interest rate rises and falling home values.CoreL… 더보기

Insurers: Buyers Beware Of Flood Damaged Vehi…

댓글 0 | 조회 930 | 2023.02.24
Insurers are urging buyers to look for signs of water damage and to checkWaka Kotahi’s written off vehicle registerwhen buying a vehicle so they can m… 더보기

Te Matatini Herenga Waka Herenga Tangata Fest…

댓글 0 | 조회 685 | 2023.02.23
Te Matatini is the biggest kapa haka festival in the Māori calendar, held over four days at Ngā Ana Wai Eden Park.This is one of the most highly antic… 더보기

Interest rate hikes wipe out housing affordab…

댓글 0 | 조회 917 | 2023.02.22
Housing has become more affordable on some measures, but due to continued rate rises, mortgage repayments are still eating up a big chunk of people’s … 더보기

Deaths increase by ten percent in 2022

댓글 0 | 조회 743 | 2023.02.20
The number of deaths in New Zealand rose to 38,574 in 2022, Stats NZ said today.This was a 10 percent increase in the number of registered deaths comp… 더보기

More homes selling at a loss as interest rate…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,238 | 2023.02.17
More people are losing money on the resale of their properties than they have been at any time in the past three years.The latestCoreLogic NZ Q4 Pain … 더보기

Clearer picture emerging of housing damage

댓글 0 | 조회 923 | 2023.02.10
Repair options are being assessed for the now 543 public houses damaged in the Auckland floods.Deputy Chief Executive for Auckland and Northland Carol… 더보기

Opinion: We may not see a property investor c…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,089 | 2023.02.09
By CoreLogic NZ Chief Property Economist Kelvin DavidsonThere’s been an increasing number of hurdles placed in front of property investors in the past… 더보기

Big Tech Survey reveals technology uptake in …

댓글 0 | 조회 574 | 2023.02.07
The Auckland Business Chamber’s Big Tech Survey has found that one of the most important tasks for small and medium businesses in 2023 is to stay ahea… 더보기

Business Credit Demand in negative territory …

댓글 0 | 조회 840 | 2023.02.03
Equifax NZ Quarterly Business Credit Demand Index: December 2022- Overall business credit enquiries down -1.7% (vs December 2021 quarter)- Business lo… 더보기

No reprieve for persistent property price fal…

댓글 0 | 조회 850 | 2023.02.01
Aotearoa New Zealand’s housing market downturn continues to roll on, with CoreLogic’s House Price Index recording a 0.3% fall in January, the 10thcons… 더보기

Severe weather impact across the Auckland are…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,973 | 2023.01.29
A state of local emergency has been declared for Auckland due to severe weather causing unprecedented flooding across the region.If life, health or pr… 더보기

Storm event updates: Sunday 29 January

댓글 0 | 조회 1,632 | 2023.01.29
Heavy rain watch for todayWe currently have a Heavy Rain Watch in place from this morning through until 6am Monday. This may be revised later today (S… 더보기

Home lending demand down across all regions f…

댓글 0 | 조회 778 | 2023.01.23
Equifax NZ Quarterly Consumer Credit Demand Index: December Quarter 2022● Overall consumer credit demand reduced by -7.7 % (vs December qtr 2021).● Mo… 더보기

SNAP POLL: Hipkins clear voter favourite for …

댓글 0 | 조회 705 | 2023.01.21
SNAP POLL: Hipkins clear voter favourite for Labour Party leadership raceFollowing Thursday’s surprise announcement by Jacinda Ardern that she will be… 더보기

Are double-digit construction price rises fin…

댓글 0 | 조회 603 | 2023.01.16
The average cost of building a home in New Zealand’s main centres increased by 11.3% last year, but the good news is that the rising cost of construct… 더보기

New Zealand LVRs not likely to be loosened th…

댓글 0 | 조회 738 | 2023.01.16
Early this year I was quotedin an articlethat explored how the country’s housing market might change if the current ‘artificial’ restrictions were tak… 더보기

Mapping the Market plots a testing year for N…

댓글 0 | 조회 694 | 2022.12.20
Aotearoa’s lifestyle and more affordable housing markets are among only a handful of suburbs to have defied the national property market downturn, as … 더보기

GDP increases 2.0 percent in the September 20…

댓글 0 | 조회 699 | 2022.12.15
Gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 2.0 percent in the September 2022 quarter, following a revised 1.9 percent rise in the June 2022 quarter, Stats N… 더보기

New Zealand's 2022 property market downturn d…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,423 | 2022.12.15
CoreLogic's annual Best of the Best Report sums up 2022 market performanceThe New Zealand property market has experienced a bigger downturn in propert… 더보기

Asian parents more concerned about prejudice …

댓글 0 | 조회 1,552 | 2022.12.14
● 8 out of 10 parents say their children are impacted by at least one physical or mental health related issue● More than half (54%) of all parents wor… 더보기

Watch those lithium-ion batteries this Christ…

댓글 0 | 조회 670 | 2022.12.13
Christmas shopping is well underway and Fire and Emergency New Zealand is reminding people to be cautious around lithium-ion batteries."These batterie… 더보기

Tough conditions for new investment purchases

댓글 0 | 조회 725 | 2022.12.07
The latest CoreLogic Buyer Classification data shows continued struggles for mortgaged multiple property owners, but arelatively high % share of purch… 더보기

Daily Organics kombucha recalled due to highe…

댓글 0 | 조회 899 | 2022.12.02
New Zealand Food Safety (NZFS) is supporting Daily Organics in its recall of kombucha due to higher-than-permitted alcohol levels.“The issue with Dail… 더보기

These are the best broadband, mobile and ener…

댓글 0 | 조회 775 | 2022.12.02
Last night saw close to 300 senior-level professionals from across New Zealand’s Telecommunication and Energy sectors come together for the NZ Compare… 더보기

High mortgage rates and recession – a bad com…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,792 | 2022.11.28
The Reserve Bank of NZ (RBNZ)'s final Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) for 2022 took us all by surprise – not by virtue of actually raising the officia… 더보기

One-year fixed mortgage rates of 7% or more o…

댓글 0 | 조회 2,810 | 2022.11.23
Given the evidence that inflation is proving tougher to stamp out than was previously expected, it doesn’t come as much surprise the Reserve Bank of N… 더보기

Gang numbers highest ever recorded

댓글 0 | 조회 670 | 2022.11.22
Alarming new data shows that gang membership in New Zealand has hit its highest level ever recorded, National’s Police spokesperson Mark Mitchell says… 더보기

Resale performance still solid, but weakening…

댓글 0 | 조회 597 | 2022.11.17
The resale performance of residential real estate has continued to deteriorate, as the wider property downturn affects the ability of vendors to sell … 더보기