RBNZ stays the course, OCR up to 5.5%

RBNZ stays the course, OCR up to 5.5%

0 개 1,385 KoreaPost

Commentary by CoreLogic NZ Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson

Today's 0.25% increase to the official cash rate (OCR) was fully in line with expectations, given inflation itself slowed in Q1 this year. In addition, future inflation forecasts on the part of both business and consumers have also pulled back a little in recent months.

While today's decision was widely anticipated, uncertainty about what happens next for the OCR and mortgage rates had risen. Last week's budget was more stimulatory for the economy than anticipated and could hold inflation higher for longer. However, in the published forecasts that supported today's Monetary Policy Statement, the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) were less reactive to recent stimulants such as the budget and higher-than-expected net migration. They reiterated their expectation that inflation won't be back within the 1-3% target range until Q3 2024 – the same guidance they provided in the February MPS.


The RBNZ still envisage a technical economic recession later this year, though it is expected to be a more modest one than published in February. And although the RBNZ expect to have seen a 0.3% increase to GDP in Q1 2023, New Zealand may actually have already been through a recession over Q4 2022 and Q1 2023 if the NZ Activity Index (NZAC) is anything to go by.

Employment remains high, and the unemployment rate is tipped to peak lower (5.4%) and sooner (end of 2024) than previously expected (5.7% by first half 2025). The RBNZ's forecast for property also predicts house prices to drop further by only 3.5% by Q1 2024, although the majority of that is expected to occur in 2023 (-3.2%).

The most intriguing projection however was the OCR track itself, which, following almost every other economist shifting the forecast peak up, was expected to be at least 5.75%. The RBNZ outlook stayed the course though, with the forecast peak remaining 5.5%, with cuts now expected to be brought forward. Beginning in the third quarter of 2024, the RBNZ forecasts the OCR to drop below 5% by the middle of 2025 and below 4% at the start of 2026.

So, what does this mean for mortgage rates? It would now be very surprising to see short term mortgage rates  change much, if at all, as a direct response to today's OCR shift itself, as this has largely been priced in. Indeed, with no change to the forecast peak, market pricing may actually come back a little after recent data and commentary had started to push things in the other direction – the RBNZ may have quashed those expectations.


In terms of what this means for the housing market, on balance, it could be pretty neutral. Mortgage rates are still high and unlikely to shift lower in a hurry so the current expectation of having a little bit further to go in this downturn remains. Additionally the extra strain on those existing borrowers who are yet to see their fixed loans reprice onto current interest rates is still to come. That could be especially concerning for the minority of borrowers who may actually move onto a new interest rate higher than their original test rate.

But strong net migration and fading recession risks would tend to work in the other direction. Overall, we still think that this downturn is close to ending – for better or worse - depending on your perspective. But with affordability still stretched and caps on debt to income ratios for mortgages looming next year, there's unlikely to be a fast rebound either.

For the latest property insights visit 


Source: CoreLogic NZ

Average Auckland rent continues rise above 5%…

댓글 0 | 조회 486 | 2일전
The average weekly rent paid in Auckland was 5.59% higher in June 2024 than one year ago, rising by $35.91 to $678.30.The statistics are drawn from mo… 더보기

Governor-General at the Paris 2024 Olympic Ga…

댓글 0 | 조회 188 | 4일전
As Patron of the New Zealand Olympic Committee, the Governor-General, The Rt Hon Dame Cindy Kiro leaves New Zealand today to travel to Paris, where sh… 더보기

Sale volumes drop in June, but first home buy…

댓글 0 | 조회 464 | 7일전
As high mortgage rates continue to dampen buyer demand in New Zealand's housing market, residential property sales weakened in June, after a 13-month … 더보기

Raft of policy changes unlikely to shift subd…

댓글 0 | 조회 239 | 2024.07.05
Amidst a raft of policy changes, the renewed weakness in Aotearoa New Zealand's home values continued in June.CoreLogic's House Price Index fell 0.5% … 더보기

Long-term Plan adopted by councillors secures…

댓글 0 | 조회 176 | 2024.06.29
Auckland Council’s Long-term Plan 2024-2034, adopted by Governing Body on Thursday (27 June 2024), is geared at sustainably managing regional growth a… 더보기

Focus on youth wellbeing more urgent than eve…

댓글 0 | 조회 304 | 2024.06.27
More evidence of the state of New Zealand youth mental health -Youth and rangatahi wellbeing and access to services assessment- has been released toda… 더보기

Insights from the field: 10 things to know ab…

댓글 0 | 조회 175 | 2024.06.26
By Kelvin Davidson, CoreLogic NZ Chief Property EconomistRegulatory change is a huge theme for housing at present, so in this environment CoreLogic's … 더보기

Persistent market challenges, despite easing …

댓글 0 | 조회 384 | 2024.06.20
As New Zealand's property market shows a modest recovery in sales volumes, the broader picture indicates activity remains subdued, with listings at el… 더보기

GDP increases 0.2 percent in the March 2024 q…

댓글 0 | 조회 226 | 2024.06.20
New Zealand’s gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.2 percent in the March 2024 quarter, following a 0.1 percent decrease in the December 2023 quarter, … 더보기

NZIER cost of alcohol harms in New Zealand es…

댓글 0 | 조회 353 | 2024.06.19
Alcohol Healthwatch welcomes NZIER costs of alcohol harms in New Zealand report released yesterday.The report commissioned by the Ministry of Health e… 더보기

Property market recovery is losing steam

댓글 0 | 조회 327 | 2024.06.14
Falling property values across a growing number of New Zealand suburbs over the past three months highlights an emerging dip in market momentum.CoreLo… 더보기

Auckland leads slowdown, as national prices d…

댓글 0 | 조회 898 | 2024.06.06
Home value growth in Aotearoa New Zealand has completely petered out in the past two months, with values dipping by 0.2% in May, after a minor 0.1% fa… 더보기

Applications open for 2024 Asia business inte…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,103 | 2024.06.05
The Asia New Zealand Foundation Te Whītau Tūhono is offering New Zealand tertiary students and recent graduates a chance to undertake internships with… 더보기

10 things to know about the mortgage market r…

댓글 0 | 조회 523 | 2024.05.28
Given the scrapping of first home grants (deposit assistance) and also the strong indication from the latest Monetary Policy Statement that mortgage r… 더보기

Reserve Bank sticks firmly to the script

댓글 0 | 조회 408 | 2024.05.23
Today's decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to leave the official cash rate (OCR) unchanged at 5.5% was no surprise. As also expected, … 더보기

Movers' could be a group to watch

댓글 0 | 조회 434 | 2024.05.22
The surge in available listings in New Zealand's residential housing market is reshaping buyer options, with relocating owner-occupiers (movers) showi… 더보기

Broadband prices in 223 countries revealed. N…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,134 | 2024.05.20
Auckland, New Zealand - NZ Compare (www.nzcompare.com), New Zealand's leading comparison website company, continues to see visitor and user growth as … 더보기

Property resale profits dip as market shifts …

댓글 0 | 조회 646 | 2024.05.16
The resale performance of residential real estate has deteriorated slightly through the first quarter of 2024, as stretched affordability and high mor… 더보기

NZ cleantech delegation heading to South Kore…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,036 | 2024.05.15
Eleven business leaders from New Zealand's ESG and clean technology sectors will travel to South Korea in May to explore the country's growing sustain… 더보기

Winter is coming − what's in store for the ho…

댓글 0 | 조회 521 | 2024.05.14
It's shaping up to be another difficult winter for the housing market, with interest rates, inflation, and rising unemployment continuing to bite.Resi… 더보기

Weaker property prices mean more 'bang for bu…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,147 | 2024.05.08
The country's first home buyers (FHBs) are taking full advantage of lower property prices, the availability of low-deposit finance, opportunities to t… 더보기

House prices flatten in April

댓글 0 | 조회 679 | 2024.05.02
Home value growth in Aotearoa New Zealand stalled in April, with the 0.1% dip indicative of the indecisive nature of the property market at present.Co… 더보기

Government cuts put 130 jobs on the line at K…

댓글 0 | 조회 446 | 2024.05.02
The Government's cuts to public services are targeting Kāinga Ora - the agency charged with fixing the public housing crisis - at a time when 25,000 p… 더보기

Borrowers bet on rate cuts by locking in shor…

댓글 0 | 조회 708 | 2024.04.18
Kiwi borrowers are betting on possible rate cuts, with the proportion of short-term fixed mortgages reaching record levels in February.TheCoreLogic NZ… 더보기

Business as usual for cash rate and housing m…

댓글 0 | 조회 379 | 2024.04.10
Commentary by CoreLogic NZ Chief Property Economist, Kelvin DavidsonToday's decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to leave the official c… 더보기

Residential recovery sluggish in first quarte…

댓글 0 | 조회 411 | 2024.04.09
Residential property values have continued to gently rise and fall throughout the first quarter of 2024, amidst a glut of listings and an ongoing dear… 더보기

Soft start for NZ housing market in March qua…

댓글 0 | 조회 766 | 2024.04.04
CoreLogic's House Price Index rose 0.5% in March, similar to January and February's muted gains, taking values 1.1% higher over the first quarter of 2… 더보기

The new-build premium could be about to shrin…

댓글 0 | 조회 434 | 2024.03.30
We estimate that new-builds are currently running about 6% more expensive than existing properties, which is in line with past norms. Given they’re th… 더보기


댓글 0 | 조회 476 | 2024.03.19
Howls of What's the time Mr Wolf will echo across Auckland this April as TVNZ’sToi Timecast join the Auckland Philharmonia to perform the children's c… 더보기

Housing recovery spreads to nearly 60% of NZ …

댓글 0 | 조회 683 | 2024.03.14
Property values rose in almost three-fifths (58.7%) of New Zealand suburbs over the past three months, illustrating the slow and steady spread of the … 더보기

Annual growth back in black despite flat Febr…

댓글 0 | 조회 553 | 2024.03.12
Property values are slightly higher on average annually for the first time since August 2022.This comes despite the latest QV House Price Index for Fe… 더보기

No OCR change... for now

댓글 0 | 조회 839 | 2024.02.28
Today's decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to leave the official cash rate (OCR) unchanged at 5.5% may have been a close call, with qu… 더보기

Construction cost growth continuing to cool

댓글 0 | 조회 457 | 2024.02.28
The average cost of building a home in New Zealand Aotearoa’s main centres has increased by 0.3% this quarter and 5.2% since February 2023.This is in … 더보기

Property sale volumes remain erratic

댓글 0 | 조회 744 | 2024.02.20
High mortgage rates continue to pressure the housing market, contributing to patchy volumes month to month, and January sales activity reaching itFigu… 더보기

Home values continue to strengthen, slowly bu…

댓글 0 | 조회 860 | 2024.02.13
The housing market's slow but steady recovery continues, with all bar one of Aotearoa New Zealand's main centres recording an average rise in home val… 더보기

Profitable resales rise for the first time in…

댓글 0 | 조회 738 | 2024.02.08
93.3% of property resales made a gross profit in Q4 2023, up from 92.4% in Q3.The median gain on profitable resales rose by $8k to $305,000.Hold perio… 더보기

MetService launches push notifications for Ne…

댓글 0 | 조회 695 | 2024.01.25
From today 25 January, Kiwis will be able to subscribe to receive notifications to their mobile phone when MetService issues a Red Warning for our mos… 더보기

Property market signs off 2023 on a strong no…

댓글 0 | 조회 676 | 2024.01.17
The CoreLogic House Price Index showed the third consecutive rise in average property values in December, with momentum building.After October's 0.4% … 더보기

Heat comes out of the construction sector as …

댓글 0 | 조회 556 | 2024.01.11
As pressures on residential construction supply chains and capacity ease, annual growth in construction costs has reduced to the lowest level in aroun… 더보기

What the shortened Brightline test means for …

댓글 0 | 조회 674 | 2023.12.21
Following the Government’s announcement that they will shorten the Brightline test back to two years for all properties from 1stJuly 2024, CoreLogic C… 더보기

Housing upturn broadens, but underwhelming 20…

댓글 0 | 조회 872 | 2023.12.20
TheCoreLogic NZ December Housing Chart Packshows that national property values rose by 0.7% in November, marking the second monthly increase as the re… 더보기

Slow recovery to be continued in 2024

댓글 0 | 조회 652 | 2023.12.19
The housing market continues to strengthen into the festive season–but a slow recovery throughout 2024 is expected.The national average home value is … 더보기

New Zealanders' Standard of Living in Freefal…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,100 | 2023.12.14
Responding to today’s release of the Q3 2023 GDP figures, Taxpayers’ Union Policy Adviser, James Ross, said:“New Zealanders have years of economic mis… 더보기

A turning point for the NZ housing market

댓글 0 | 조회 813 | 2023.12.13
A 'year of two halves' aptly describes the country's property market performance in 2023, where declining sale volumes and house prices characterised … 더보기

10 things to know about mortgage debt right n…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,360 | 2023.12.06
The housing loan market has been relatively subdued over the past 12-18 months, alongside a downturn in sales volumes and property prices. But there a… 더보기

Home values rise 0.7% in November

댓글 0 | 조회 1,302 | 2023.12.01
Hot on the heels of October's 0.4% rise in property values, the CoreLogic House Price Index shows another rise in November, of 0.7%.The net result is … 더보기

Mayor’s proposal to make public transport fas…

댓글 0 | 조회 632 | 2023.11.30
Mayor Wayne Brown is proposing that Aucklanders pay no more than $50 a week on public transport, including bus, rail, and inner harbour ferry services… 더보기

Cost of building a home increases by 4.9% ann…

댓글 0 | 조회 708 | 2023.11.30
The average cost of building a home in Aotearoa New Zealand’s main centres has increased by less than half as much as last year.QV CostBuilder is New … 더보기

An OCR decision of words not actions

댓글 0 | 조회 695 | 2023.11.29
By Kelvin Davidson, Chief Property Economist, CoreLogic New ZealandToday’s decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to leave the official … 더보기

New Zealand rents surge 6.1% in the past year

댓글 0 | 조회 1,326 | 2023.11.23
Rental growth is running at historically high levels, hitting 6.1% in the year to October, roughly double the long-term average growth rate of 3.2%,Co… 더보기