Property market weakens further, outlook remains pessimistic

Property market weakens further, outlook remains pessimistic

0 개 442 KoreaPost

CoreLogic’s House Price Index (HPI), which is the most robust measure of property value change in the market, shows the NZ property market has weakened further as the power shifts to buyers. 


The national measure of housing prices fell -0.8% in April, the first decline since the weakness following the initial COVID-enforced lockdown in August 2020 (-0.2%). This time the downturn is also more widespread, including a -1.6% drop in Auckland and -1.5% drop in Wellington, including a more significant -3.0% fall in Lower Hutt.


Christchurch is the only main centre to show any real resistance from the weakening market, with

values appearing to plateau rather than fall recently.


fad998a87b5d9a96c50d2e6943affcab_1651611271_4974.gif
 

Nick Goodall, CoreLogic NZ Head of Research, says “Affordability remains a key constraint on the market as increasing interest rates impact the number of eligible borrowers and the amount they can borrow.


This is on top of tighter credit availability by way of greater scrutiny on borrower expenses through the CCCFA changes as well as tighter loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions continuing to bite.


“Proposed changes to the CCCFA may provide some respite, and the latest data from the Reserve Bank of NZ (RBNZ) shows banks are still staying well below (3% in March) their allowed speed limits (10%) on high LVR lending so credit flows may open up in the coming months. Debt to income restrictions have been pushed back too (more below).”


fad998a87b5d9a96c50d2e6943affcab_1651611378_2353.gif
 


 “Indeed, continued (albeit reduced) growth in Christchurch, combined with value falls in Dunedin, have seen the average value of the two South Island cities drift further from each other. This is a revealing change given Dunedin’s average value was greater than Christchurch as recently as September 2021,” says Mr Godall.


The -2.9% fall in Dunedin values over the last three months is the greatest quarterly decline in over 13 years – back when the market was still in retreat from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Mr Goodall says house price affordability has become particularly stretched in the ‘Edinburgh of the South’ with it being the third most unaffordable main centre, according to the value-to-income ratio, years to save a deposit and proportion of income required to service a mortgage measures.


 


Similarly, the -2.0% fall across the Wellington region in the last three months is also a record since the GFC. Both Lower and Upper Hutt are key contributors to the regional deterioration, with -3.0% and - 2.6% drops over the month respectively.


However all five of the main Wellington localities saw declines in their average values over April and the last quarter. The slowdown has clearly hit hard across the Capital– perhaps reflecting the impact of tightening credit on first home buyers who typically account for a relatively high share of sales compared to other main centres.

 

fad998a87b5d9a96c50d2e6943affcab_1651611475_1584.gif
 

The size and diversity of Auckland has led to some mixed results across different measures recently, with a drop of -1.6% in April more than reversing the 1.4% growth recorded in March. At a more granular level, the old Auckland City Council area, which has the highest average value of the Super City at $1.72m, saw the largest fall in values, of -2.5% over the month. Both Waitakere (-1.9%) and Manukau (-1.5%) also experienced noticeable declines in April.


Meanwhile some growth persisted in Franklin (0.6%) and values in Rodney fell by a very minor -0.1%.


CoreLogic House Price Index – Auckland Super City

fad998a87b5d9a96c50d2e6943affcab_1651611529_6621.gif
 

CoreLogic House Price Index – Other Main Urban Areas (ordered by annual growth)

fad998a87b5d9a96c50d2e6943affcab_1651611608_9923.gif
 

Mr Goodall says “Outside the main cities there appears to be particular weakness across the

Manawatu/Wanganui and Hawke’s Bay regions with the Hastings market falling -2.4%, Wanganui down -2.3% and Palmerston North decreasing by -1.5% in April.


“As is the case across the country the future of the labour market, both nationwide and locally, will be important in helping to determine ‘where to next’ for each of the markets. Currently the labour market is tight, which likely means strong competition for people and should lead to higher wages.


Consideration of the grass being greener across the ditch should also be recognised though, with a reduction in productivity not good for the prospects of our economy.”


Recent reporting of the importance and increased prevalence of the bank of mum and dad illustrates the growing inequality of society split by those who own property and those who don’t. ‘Doing it on your own’, says Mr Goodall, is becoming more and more difficult in this environment and this will ensure the housing market remains a hot topic for both the Government and parties in opposition.


“Accordingly, the RBNZ is never too far from those conversations either, and the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to increase the official cash rate (OCR) by 0.5 percentage points in April was bold, but also largely expected.


“This means the decision didn’t have too much of an effect on fixed mortgage interest rates as the increase had effectively already been priced in, though anybody coming up to re-fixing their mortgage will be experiencing a large increase in their rates from the recent movement. The trajectory of the OCR forecast is what is of most interest however and the forecast peak of more than 3% is no doubt tempering some would-be-buyers to hold off in the environment of a falling market alongside rising interest rates.


“Outside of interest rates there appears to be a feeling that credit availability could be lifting out of the worst of times. High LVR lending has dropped well below the allowed speed limits and with preapprovals back on the table and anecdotes of banks more comfortable to open up again, we may see a little lift of ‘otherwise locked out buyers’, though this pool of buyers is likely to be relatively small.


“It was also interesting to see the RBNZ recently push any serious consideration for updated debt-toincome (DTI) polices into mid-2023 at the earliest (alongside mandated floors for test serviceability rates). The justification seemingly being that there’s no need to make further changes in an alreadyadjusting market, going through variable and uncertain times. For now, investors will be relieved, as they are the ones borrowing at high DTIs the most often.”


Longer term, Mr Goodall says DTIs remain a likely addition to the RBNZ’s toolkit, but perhaps their introduction will be met with a loosening of the LVR limits, to reduce possible political damage and impact to first home buyers – that impact could also be lessened by speed limits and exemptions too (e.g. for new-build properties) “The slowdown/downturn appears to be entrenched, but will likely play out in a gradual manner, as long as he labour market remains tight. It should be noted that mortgage serviceability test rates have also increased with actual interest rates. While this likely contributed to the reduction in lending and transactions, it should serve to stress test that borrowers can withstand interest rate increases.


“Finally, a quick look at the construction/development industry and the recent announcement of further investment ($1.4Bn) into building houses and the infrastructure to support it in Auckland should be welcomed.


“Concern remains around the vulnerability of the development industry to withstand high material and wage costs, reducing property prices and increasing interest rates, however greater certainty on the pipeline of work should at least help with planning,” says Mr Goodall.


Based on CoreLogic’s proprietary Greenfield database, lot creation across new residential subdivisions remain well above average, implying plenty of construction activity in the pipeline.


fad998a87b5d9a96c50d2e6943affcab_1651611678_425.gif
For all the latest property news and insights visit corelogic.co.nz. 


Note:

The CoreLogic HPI uses a rolling three month collection of sales data. This has always been the case and ensures a large sample of sales data is used to measure value change over time. This does mean the measure can be less reactive to recent market movements but offers a smooth trend over time.


However, due to having agent and non-agent sales included, the index provides the most comprehensive measure of property value change over the longer term.

ENDS


Source: CoreLogic Media

Matariki ki te Manawa flicks the switch on ne…

댓글 0 | 조회 251 | 2022.06.17
It's home to nearly 40,000 Aucklanders including children. It's the workplace of 137,566. This 4.33 square kilometre area of land generated $23.2billi… 더보기

4,869 community cases; 370 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 343 | 2022.06.17
Today we are reporting 4,869 community cases, 370 current hospitalisations, and 16 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers toda… 더보기

Required Testing Order to be revoked from 30 …

댓글 0 | 조회 263 | 2022.06.17
Border workers will no longer be required to undergo COVID-19 testing under New Zealand’s public health response to the pandemic, from 11.59pm Thursda… 더보기

5,435 community cases; 377 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 318 | 2022.06.16
Today we are reporting 5,435 community cases, 377 current hospitalisations, and 15 deaths. The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers tod… 더보기

33,453 flu vaccines administered in the last …

댓글 0 | 조회 302 | 2022.06.16
Influenza vaccines administered in New Zealand The numbers as at 10 June 2022 33,453 flu vaccines administered across New Zealand in the past week, br… 더보기

Pre-departure tests removed from June 20

댓글 0 | 조회 473 | 2022.06.16
Travellers to New Zealand will no longer need a COVID-19 pre-departure test from 11.59pm Monday 20 June, COVID-19 Response Minister Dr Ayesha Verrall … 더보기

Equity is a rising factor for property buyers

댓글 0 | 조회 564 | 2022.06.15
We’ve just run the CoreLogic Buyer Classification data for May, and it shows some fairly stable patterns for first home buyers(FHBs) and mortgaged mul… 더보기

5,554 community cases; 368 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 422 | 2022.06.15
Today we are reporting 5,554 community cases, 368 current hospitalisations, and 11 deaths. The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers tod… 더보기

6,133 community cases; 377 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 230 | 2022.06.14
Today we are reporting 6,133 community cases, 377 current hospitalisations, and 23 deaths. The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers tod… 더보기

4,413 community cases; 352 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 341 | 2022.06.13
Today we are reporting 4,413 community cases, 352 current hospitalisations, and five deaths. The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers t… 더보기

Scoping work is underway to develop a New Zea…

댓글 0 | 조회 289 | 2022.06.13
Poor diet and high body mass index (obesity) are leading causes of health loss in New Zealand. These risk factors contribute to inequities in health o… 더보기

4,402 community cases; 354 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 464 | 2022.06.12
Today we are reporting 4,402 community cases, 354 current hospitalisations, and nine deaths. The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers t… 더보기

5,130 community cases; 332 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 347 | 2022.06.11
Today we are reporting 5,130 community cases, 332 current hospitalisations, and 8 deaths. The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers toda… 더보기

47,096 flu vaccines administered in the last …

댓글 0 | 조회 318 | 2022.06.11
Influenza vaccines administered in New Zealand The numbers as at 3 June 2022 47,096 flu vaccines administered across New Zealand in the past week, bri… 더보기

6,297 community cases; today’s hospitalisatio…

댓글 0 | 조회 508 | 2022.06.10
Today we are reporting 6,297 community cases,361 current hospitalisations, and 10 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today… 더보기

7,927 community cases; 393 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 355 | 2022.06.09
Today we are reporting 7,927 community cases, 393 current hospitalisations, and 27 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers toda… 더보기

Ministry of Health's interim structure announ…

댓글 0 | 조회 352 | 2022.06.09
On 8 June2022, Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield announced the Ministry of Health’s new interim structure.The Ministry will have eight n… 더보기

7,050 community cases; 361 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 458 | 2022.06.08
Today we are reporting 7,050 community cases, 361 current hospitalisations, and 24 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers toda… 더보기

10,191 community cases in two days; 371 hospi…

댓글 0 | 조회 516 | 2022.06.07
Today we are reporting 10,191 community cases in the past two days, 371 current hospitalisations, and 14 deaths for the past two days.  The seven-day … 더보기

4,400 community cases; 371 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 394 | 2022.06.05
Today we are reporting 4,400 community cases, 371 current hospitalisations, and eight deaths. The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers … 더보기

6,291 community cases; 369 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 372 | 2022.06.04
Today we are reporting 6,291 community cases, 369 current hospitalisations, and 11 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers toda… 더보기

6,232 community cases; 390 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 387 | 2022.06.03
Today we are reporting 6,232 community cases, 390 current hospitalisations, and 14 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers toda… 더보기

7,870 community cases; 393 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 347 | 2022.06.02
Today we are reporting 7,870 community cases, 393 current hospitalisations, and 13 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers toda… 더보기

Kiwis urged to look after themselves and alle…

댓글 0 | 조회 294 | 2022.06.02
The Ministry of Health is encouraging New Zealanders to look after their health and to do their bit to reduce pressure on the health system through wh… 더보기

8,182 community cases; 373 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 373 | 2022.06.01
Today we are reporting 8,182 community cases, 373 current hospitalisations, and 13 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers toda… 더보기

Update on prescribing of antiviral medicines

댓글 0 | 조회 320 | 2022.06.01
Access to treatment for COVID-19 in the community has been widened, with dedicated pharmacists prescribers now able to prescribe antiviral medicines.A… 더보기

8,436 community cases; 389 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 400 | 2022.05.31
Today we are reporting 8,436 new community cases, 389 current hospitalisations, and 18 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers … 더보기

Ministry of Health releases three reports on …

댓글 0 | 조회 333 | 2022.05.31
Today the Ministry has released three reports on Sudden Unexpected Death in Infancy (SUDI).Kia Puawai National SUDI Prevention Programme Evaluation: F… 더보기

5,836 community cases; 403 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 386 | 2022.05.30
Today we are reporting 5,836 new community cases, 403 current hospitalisations, and five deaths in the past three days.The seven-day rolling average o… 더보기

New report finds New Zealanders remain optimi…

댓글 0 | 조회 408 | 2022.05.30
New Zealanders continue to have a great respect for older people according to a new report released today.The Office for Seniors has published its sec… 더보기

4,841 community cases; 383 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 432 | 2022.05.29
Today we are reporting 4,841 community cases, 383 hospitalisations, and nine deaths. The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is … 더보기

6,369 community cases; 362 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 291 | 2022.05.28
Today we are reporting 6,369 community cases, 362 hospitalisations and 13 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 6,92… 더보기

6,862 community cases; 350 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 408 | 2022.05.27
Today we are reporting 6,862 community cases, 350 current hospitalisations and 25 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today… 더보기

7,591 community cases; 355 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 464 | 2022.05.26
Today we are reporting 7,591 community cases, 355 hospitalisations and 16 deaths. The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 7,0… 더보기

8,150 community cases; 368 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 571 | 2022.05.25
Today we are reporting8,150community cases, 368 hospitalisations and 11 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 7,308 … 더보기

8,435 community cases; 327 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 350 | 2022.05.24
Today we are reporting8,435community cases, 327 hospitalisations and 15 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers is 7,507– last … 더보기

6,000 community cases; 363 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 377 | 2022.05.23
Today we are reporting6,000community cases, 363 hospitalisations and 9 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers is 7,712– last M… 더보기

Residential property resales show first sign …

댓글 0 | 조회 517 | 2022.05.23
The resale performance of residential real estate has started to weaken, CoreLogic NZ's latest Pain & Gain report found.CoreLogic NZ Chief Propert… 더보기

4,990 community cases; 379 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 399 | 2022.05.22
Today we are reporting4,990community cases, 379 hospitalisations and 10 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers is 7,863– last … 더보기

6,635 community cases; 400 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 420 | 2022.05.21
Today we are reporting 6,635 community cases, 400 hospitalisations and 6 deaths. The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers is 7,972 – la… 더보기

7,800 community cases; 401 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 409 | 2022.05.20
Today we are reporting7,800community cases, 401 hospitalisations and 17 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers is 8,032– last … 더보기

9,091 community cases; 411 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 489 | 2022.05.19
Today we are reporting 9,091 community cases, 411 hospitalisations and 5 deaths. The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers is 7,981 – la… 더보기

9,570 community cases; 425 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 629 | 2022.05.18
Today we are reporting 9,570 community cases, 425 hospitalisations and 32 deaths. The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers is 8,024 – l… 더보기

COVID-19 deaths reporting update

댓글 0 | 조회 411 | 2022.05.18
The Ministry of Health has expedited the process for formally coding the cause of death for those who are known to have died within 28 days of a COVID… 더보기

9,843 community cases; 421 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 494 | 2022.05.17
Today we are reporting 9,843 community cases, 421 hospitalisations and eight deaths. The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is … 더보기

Auckland woman jailed after fraudulently obta…

댓글 0 | 조회 488 | 2022.05.17
A 50-year-old Auckland woman has been sentenced to 18 months in prison after admitting to fraudulently obtaining close to $75,000 in disability fundin… 더보기

7,061 community cases; 415 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 410 | 2022.05.16
Today we are reporting7,061community cases, 415 hospitalisations and 5 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers is 7,702– last M… 더보기

5,745 community cases; 384 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 349 | 2022.05.15
Today we are reporting5,745community cases, 384 hospitalisations and 15 deaths. The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers is 7,608– last… 더보기

7,068 community cases; 398 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 277 | 2022.05.14
Today we are reporting7,068community cases, 398 hospitalisations and 18 deaths.Today’s seven-day rolling average of community case numbers is 7,595– l… 더보기

7,441 community cases; 398 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 299 | 2022.05.13
Today we are reporting7,441 community cases, 398 hospitalisations and 29 deaths.Today’s seven-day rolling average of community case numbers is 7,548– … 더보기