Auckland population may hit 2 million in early 2030s

Auckland population may hit 2 million in early 2030s

0 개 182 노영례

Auckland’s population may rise from about 1.7 million currently to 2 million by early next decade, Stats NZ said today.

“Auckland will likely have the highest average annual growth of New Zealand’s 16 regions over the next 30 years, from net migration and natural increase (more births than deaths) in relatively equal shares,” population estimates and projections manager Hamish Slack said.

Auckland may have 2 million residents by the early 2030s, but that milestone may come earlier or later depending on levels of migration over the coming years. Auckland is currently home to just over one-third of New Zealand’s population (34 percent). By 2048 it could make up 37 percent.

4354d37123192471e5d5408771d82b1c_1617170280_5558.png 

“The medium-growth projection suggests Auckland’s population could expand by another 300,000 people by 2033 – an average of about 60 extra people every day, or 1,900 a month,” Mr Slack said.

Auckland reached a population of 1 million in the early 1990s. Recent growth was driven by high net migration in the seven years before COVID-19.

Auckland will account for half of New Zealand's population growth over the next 30 years, under the medium projection. This is similar to its share of the country's growth over the last 30 years.

Rest of New Zealand

Population growth rates in Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Canterbury, and Northland are also important contributors to New Zealand’s increasing population.

4354d37123192471e5d5408771d82b1c_1617170311_1475.png 

Updated projections suggest that the rate of growth in all regions will slow in the long term.

“An ageing population means we can expect more deaths, despite increasing life expectancy, so population growth will generally slow in the long term,” Mr Slack said.

With an ageing population, all regions except Auckland, Waikato, Gisborne, Wellington, and Canterbury are projected to have natural decreases by the late 2040s, with more deaths than births.

"The total number of people who will be living in each area in the future is uncertain. However, what is certain is that every area of New Zealand will have more older people."

West Coast may see population dip

The medium projections indicate that the West Coast is the only region that may have a lower population in 2048 than in 2018. This is likely due to more deaths than births and low net migration.

The West Coast’s population (32,400 in 2020) may start declining in the early 2030s, decreasing to 30,600 in 2048. Low and high projections have this ranging from 25,500 to 36,000 people in 2048.

The West Coast’s population has dropped before (down to 31,100 in 2001 and 2002), but steadily climbed back (to 33,100 in 2011 and 2012).

4354d37123192471e5d5408771d82b1c_1617170338_4064.png 

In the early 1990s, births on the West Coast exceeded deaths by about 250 a year. More recently births exceeded deaths by about 40 a year (in 2018–2020). Deaths could exceed births by 200 a year in the early 2030s, and by 900 a year in the late 2040s (medium projection).

Most territorial authority areas are growing

Of New Zealand’s 67 territorial authority (TA) areas – or city and district council areas – 61 are projected to have more people in 2048 than in 2018. The fastest growing areas are projected to be Selwyn (west of Christchurch) and Queenstown-Lakes districts. The six TA areas expected to have smaller populations in 2048 than in 2018 are Waitomo, Ruapehu, Buller, Grey, Westland, and Gore districts.

Nearly three-quarters of New Zealand’s growth (74 percent) by 2048 will be in Auckland and the other 12 cities, resulting in 968,000 more city dwellers than in 2018.

As released in December 2020, New Zealand’s total population could reach 6 million in about 20–30 years (see New Zealand’s population could reach 6 million by 2050 for more information).

These projections are not predictions. The projections should be used as an indication of the overall trend, rather than as exact forecasts. Stats NZ produces low, medium, and high growth projections for every local area every 2–3 years to assist planning by communities, local councils, and government.

Projections are based on assumptions made about future migration, birth rates, and death rates. For these projections, the long-term median annual net migration gain is assumed to be 25,000 for New Zealand, an increase from 15,000 in the 2016-base median assumptions. However, migration remains uncertain in the short term because of COVID-19 border restrictions (see New Zealand citizens drive net migration gain for further information), as well as in the long term. The long-term total fertility rate is assumed to be 1.65 births per woman, down from 1.85 in the previous assumptions. These projections assume current policy settings, and do not try to anticipate future major policy changes which may affect population change.

Text alternative for graph Auckland region population, estimated (up to 2020) and projected (from 2023), 1996–2048

The graph shows the population estimates of Auckland region up to the year 2020, and its projected population from 2023 to 2048. The values of the vertical axis are in millions. There are low, medium, and high projections. The lowest value in the graph is the population estimate for Auckland in 1996, a value of 1,115,800. The highest value in the graph is the projected population of Auckland in 2048 with a value of 2,624,300, using the high projections. The 2048 value using the low projections is 1,993,400, and 2,302,900 using the medium projections.

Text alternative for graph Projected average annual population change, by region, 2018–2048

The graph shows the projected average annual population change from 2018 to 2048 for each region, with low, medium, and high projections for each region. The vertical line in the graph indicates zero percent of growth. The average annual population change ranged from 1.55 percent growth in Auckland using the high projection, to 0.8 percent decline in the West Coast region using the low projection.

Text alternative for graph West Coast region population, estimated (up to 2020) and projected (from 2023), 1996–2048

The graph shows the population estimates of West Coast region up to the year 2020, and its projected population from 2023 to 2048. There are low, medium, and high projections. The lowest value in the graph is the projected population of West Coast in 2048 with a value of 25,500, using the low projections. The highest value in the graph is the projected population of West Coast in 2048 with a value of 36,000, using the high projections. The 2048 value using the medium projections is 30,600.

출처 : 뉴질랜드 통계청 보도자료

No new community cases; no new cases of COVID…

댓글 0 | 조회 97 | 9시간전
There are no new cases of COVID-19 to report in the community in New Zealand today.There are also no new cases to report in recent returnees in our ma… 더보기

$6.4 million multi-sport centre opens doors i…

댓글 0 | 조회 196 | 9시간전
Home to a range of sports, the Ngāti Ōtara Park Multi-sport Centre opened on 8 May, offering local talent world-class space with modern equipment to t… 더보기

no new cases of COVID-19 in managed isolation…

댓글 0 | 조회 188 | 1일전
There are no new cases of COVID-19 to report in the community in New Zealand today.There are no new cases to report in recent returnees in our managed… 더보기

Why Aucklanders love Potters Park

댓글 0 | 조회 362 | 1일전
Eight reasons to visitThe iconicPotters Parkis popular with all Aucklanders for good reason. It’s conveniently located for one, but there’s more to it… 더보기

2 new cases of COVID-19 in managed isolation

댓글 0 | 조회 735 | 2일전
There are no new cases of COVID-19 to report in the community in New Zealand today.There are two new cases to report in recent returnees in our manage… 더보기

Construction to deliver Hurstmere Road improv…

댓글 0 | 조회 387 | 2일전
Work to deliver a safer and more people-friendly Hurstmere Road has resumed this week following a construction hiatus over the busy summer period.Four… 더보기

3 new cases and 3 historical cases of COVID-1…

댓글 0 | 조회 647 | 3일전
There are no new cases of COVID-19 to report in the community in New Zealand today.There are three new cases to report in recent returnees in our mana… 더보기

Exciting step for CRL as Tunnel Boring Machin…

댓글 0 | 조회 105 | 3일전
TBM Dame Whina Cooper launchedCompleting Auckland’s City Rail Link has taken an exciting step forward today with the official launch of the Tunnel Bor… 더보기

No new community cases; 1 new case of COVID-1…

댓글 0 | 조회 181 | 4일전
There are no new cases of COVID-19 to report in the community in New Zealand today.There is one new case to report in a recent returnee in our managed… 더보기

Govt decision will help make vaccines more ac…

댓글 0 | 조회 206 | 5일전
Aotearoa New Zealand is the latest country to support the proposal for a TRIPS waiver to COVID-19 vaccines, following in the steps of the Biden admini… 더보기

1 new case of COVID-19 in managed isolation; …

댓글 0 | 조회 289 | 5일전
There are no new cases of COVID-19 to report in the community in New Zealand today.There is one new case and three cases being investigated as histori… 더보기

Māori names and stories returned to the whenu…

댓글 0 | 조회 63 | 5일전
Names harking back to history and stories treasured by Māori are being returned to the whenua in parks across communities in the Ōtara-Papatoetoe Loca… 더보기

3 new cases of COVID-19 in managed isolation;…

댓글 0 | 조회 505 | 6일전
There are no new cases of COVID-19 to report in the community in New Zealand today.There are three new cases and three historical cases to report in r… 더보기

Queen Street lobby group taking Auckland Coun…

댓글 0 | 조회 205 | 6일전
Discussions this afternoon between Auckland Council and the Save the Queen Street Society (SQSS) failed to resolve differences between the two parties… 더보기

No new community cases in New Zealand; one in…

댓글 0 | 조회 141 | 7일전
There are no new cases of COVID-19 to report in the community today.    There is one new case to report in recent returnees in managed isolation facil… 더보기

Auckland Transport announces dates for first …

댓글 0 | 조회 186 | 7일전
Karangahape Road’s heritage-rich neighbourhood has become supercharged with renewal in recent times, as the area moves closer to its future as a vibra… 더보기

No new community cases in New Zealand; four i…

댓글 0 | 조회 59 | 8일전
There are no new cases of COVID-19 to report in the community today.  There are four new cases to report in recent returnees in managed isolation faci… 더보기

No new community cases in NZ; Western Austral…

댓글 0 | 조회 116 | 9일전
There are no new cases of COVID-19 to report in the community today. There arefournew cases to report in recent returnees in managed isolation facilit… 더보기

Stowaway mouse snared by biosecurity dog

댓글 0 | 조회 187 | 10일전
A mouse, hoping to spend a relaxing weekend on an island in the Hauraki Gulf, had its plans derailed when it was spotted emerging from a passenger’s b… 더보기

No new community cases; no new cases of COVID…

댓글 0 | 조회 66 | 2021.04.30
There are no new cases of COVID-19 to report in the community today.There are also no new cases to report in recent returnees in managed isolation fac… 더보기

Auckland Council’s Matariki tree planting day…

댓글 0 | 조회 253 | 2021.04.30
Matariki is on the way and to celebrate, Auckland Council is once again hosting free community planting days over winter.Matariki community tree plant… 더보기

No new community cases; 3 new cases of COVID-…

댓글 0 | 조회 143 | 2021.04.29
There are no new cases of COVID-19 to report in the community today.There are three new cases to report in recent returnees in managed isolation facil… 더보기

CoreLogic report says property market game ha…

댓글 0 | 조회 205 | 2021.04.29
The CoreLogic Property Market & Economic Update for Q1 2021 reinforced the heated marketconditions which led to the Government’s recent housing po… 더보기

Ministry of Health thanks New Zealand’s front…

댓글 0 | 조회 119 | 2021.04.29
Almost 100,000 people aged 65 and over have had the influenza vaccine in the first two weeks of this year’s campaign.This week is World Immunisation W… 더보기

Auckland Council savings near $120 million ta…

댓글 0 | 조회 81 | 2021.04.29
Ninety-nine per cent of Emergency Budget savings target achievedAuckland Council has achieved 99 per cent—or $119 million—of the $120 million savings … 더보기

No new community cases; 2 new cases of COVID-…

댓글 0 | 조회 71 | 2021.04.28
There are no new cases of COVID-19 to report in the community today.There are two new cases to report in recent returnees in managed isolation facilit… 더보기

Waiheke Local Board member Kylee Matthews ste…

댓글 0 | 조회 85 | 2021.04.28
Waiheke Local Board will see a change of Deputy Chair this month following member Bob Upchurch’s resignation from the role.Mr Upchurch announced his r… 더보기

No new community cases; 8 cases of COVID-19 i…

댓글 0 | 조회 88 | 2021.04.27
There are no new cases of COVID-19 in the community to report today.There are eight new cases of COVID-19 to report in managed isolation in the two da… 더보기

40 year-old pōhutukawa return to Quay Street …

댓글 0 | 조회 156 | 2021.04.27
Two 11-metre, 11-tonne pōhutukawa part of our urban ngahere againWhile the city was sleeping, Auckland’s urban ngahere/forest welcomed home the first … 더보기

No new community cases; no new cases of COVID…

댓글 0 | 조회 140 | 2021.04.25
There are no new cases in the community to report today.There are also no new positive cases of COVID-19 to report in managed isolation since yesterda… 더보기

Funding approved for regional amenities

댓글 0 | 조회 129 | 2021.04.25
Auckland Council’s Finance and Performance Committee today unanimously approved the levy for funding Auckland’s regional amenities for the 2021-2022 f… 더보기

No new community cases; two new cases of COVI…

댓글 0 | 조회 184 | 2021.04.24
There are no new cases in the community to report today.There are two new positive cases of COVID-19 to report in managed isolation since yesterday.Th… 더보기

Auckland Council savings near $120 million ta…

댓글 0 | 조회 316 | 2021.04.24
Ninety-nine per cent of Emergency Budget savings target achievedAuckland Council has achieved 99 per cent—or $119 million—of the $120 million savings … 더보기

No new community cases; no new cases of COVID…

댓글 0 | 조회 102 | 2021.04.23
There are no new cases in the community to report today.There are also no new positive cases of COVID-19 to report in managed isolation since yesterda… 더보기

40 year-old pōhutukawa return to Quay Street …

댓글 0 | 조회 189 | 2021.04.23
Two 11-metre, 11-tonne pōhutukawa part of our urban ngahere againWhile the city was sleeping, Auckland’s urban ngahere/forest welcomed home the first … 더보기

No new community cases; 3 cases of COVID-19 i…

댓글 0 | 조회 144 | 2021.04.22
There are no new cases in the community to report today.There are three new positive cases of COVID-19 to report in managed isolation since our last m… 더보기

Survey shows strong support for increased inv…

댓글 0 | 조회 123 | 2021.04.21
A Colmar Brunton survey of more than 4000 Aucklanders has found 46 per cent support for Auckland Council’s proposed 10-year Budget, with 37 per cent o… 더보기

No new community cases; 1 new case of COVID-1…

댓글 0 | 조회 358 | 2021.04.21
There are no new cases in the community to report today. The border worker announced by the Ministry of Health yesterday has been officially included … 더보기

Commemorating Anzac Day

댓글 0 | 조회 205 | 2021.04.21
Auckland Council is proud to partner with the Auckland RSA to deliver Auckland’s 2021 Anzac Day. Below are all the details you need to honour our vete… 더보기

1 border case; 1 new historical case of COVID…

댓글 0 | 조회 151 | 2021.04.20
There are no new community cases of COVID-19 to report today.There is one border worker who has returned a positive test result for COVID-19 – they wo… 더보기

New playground celebrated at Western Springs …

댓글 0 | 조회 208 | 2021.04.20
Western Springs Lakeside Te Wai Ōrea Park has a brand new ecology-themed playground.The renewed playground fits with its natural surroundings and incl… 더보기

No new community cases; 2 new cases of COVID-…

댓글 0 | 조회 88 | 2021.04.19
There are no new cases in the community to report today.There are 2 new positive cases of COVID-19 to report in managed isolation since yesterday. The… 더보기

Government partnership with Amazon Studios is…

댓글 0 | 조회 143 | 2021.04.19
Friday's confirmation of a long-term partnership between the New Zealand Government and Amazon Studios around its streaming series based on The Lord o… 더보기

No new community cases; 4 new cases of COVID-…

댓글 0 | 조회 118 | 2021.04.18
There are no new cases in the community to report today.There are four new positive cases of COVID-19 and 1 historical case to report in managed isola… 더보기

Queen Street gets a makeover as COVID-19 work…

댓글 0 | 조회 378 | 2021.04.18
Pocket park, boardwalks and planting for northern end of Queen StreetWide boardwalks, seating and native plants in planter boxes will soon replace the… 더보기

New residential parking zone confirmed for Ta…

댓글 0 | 조회 329 | 2021.04.16
Takapuna will soon have a new residential parking zone - providing greater parking availability and flexibility for residents and visitors.The zone wi… 더보기

No new community cases; 1 case of COVID-19 in…

댓글 0 | 조회 165 | 2021.04.16
There are no new cases in the community to report today.There is one new positive case of COVID-19 to report in managed isolation since our last media… 더보기

Border trial of app to detect COVID-19 early

댓글 0 | 조회 216 | 2021.04.15
A trial is underway to see if an app connected to wearable smart devices can detect COVID-19 in border workers before they experience symptoms, says S… 더보기

No new community cases; 2 cases of COVID-19 i…

댓글 0 | 조회 138 | 2021.04.15
There are no new cases in the community to report today.There are two new positive cases of COVID-19 to report in managed isolation since our last med… 더보기

People-friendly streets trial gets underway i…

댓글 0 | 조회 256 | 2021.04.14
A new trial road layout in Henderson town centre to help improve traffic flow and provide a safe alternative for people to use bikes, scooters and pub… 더보기